Flagship Energy’s Tejal Shah Energy Markets Update – 17th April 2025

Prices have slumped in recent weeks but after yesterday’s gains of over 3% in European and UK gas markets, we are set for a weekly increase ahead of the Easter holidays. The markets have been observing imports of LNG and with supply disruptions from three export facilities in Australia, Malaysia, and Brunei the prospect of increased competition in global LNG markets raised prices. Australia’s Ichthys LNG, said the rate of production at the plant has decreased temporarily, without specifying why or when full production would resume. In Southeast Asia, industry and trade sources said that both Malaysia’s Bintulu LNG complex and the Brunei LNG plant were also experiencing production issues, with Brunei LNG cancelling a tender issued this month for a June delivered cargo. Despite production outages in the Pacific, the inter-basin arbitrage has held closed for prompt deliveries, with only one carrier diverting in the mid-Atlantic towards Asia on April 16, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at commodities pricing agency Argus. Europe still has a big task to inject gas into storage, snapping up shipments in recent weeks. If the global LNG market is tighter its likely to push prices up compared to previous years. Elsewhere China signalled it was open to talks with the US which fuelled further speculations yesterday. European officials have also dropped the idea of pushing for a ban on the bloc’s Russian LNG imports in upcoming packages because of resistance from some governments and uncertainty about alternative sources, EU officials said on Wednesday. Instead, the Commission wants to iron out a new road map to end the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy by 2027. The plan is due to be announced in early May, but details are scarce. Low liquidity has been observed today ahead of the Easter holidays whilst fundamentals look stable.