Bearishness was seeded, in part, by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on imports from China, which saw the Nasdaq falling 3.5% in the wake of Trump’s announcement. More conciliatory noises on social media over the weekend saw stocks rebound. Reaction from UK gas and power markets was more muted in the immediate wake of the news, but pessimism about global trade flows continues to weigh on commodity futures across the hydrocarbon complex.
Ample LNG flows also weigh on gas and power prices. Europe’s LNG sendout last week set record levels for early October, as global output continues to grow even before the significant wave of additional export capacity comes online over the course of 2026. Egypt’s floating storage filled up last week, meaning circa 20 cargo deliveries are likely to be deferred into next year. This frees up capacity to head towards Europe.
Wind generation for much of w/c 13th October has been at deep lows, with a trough in output of less than 3,000MWh/h expected on 17th October before output picks up into the coming weekend. This has bolstered gas-for-power requirements significantly, with gas meeting over 60% of UK power demand during spells on Monday.
Despite strong gas demand, the UK gas system has opened long each day this week amid strong LNG injections from Grain and Milford Haven.
