The EU’s hydrogen fuelling rollout is on shaky ground, with a new study revealing major flaws in how refuelling stations are being planned.
Researchers at Sweden’s Chalmers University of Technology say the current one-size-fits-all approach risks wasting tens of millions of euros annually and fails to reflect actual demand.
Under the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), EU countries must install hydrogen stations every 200km on major roads and at each urban node by 2030.
But the Chalmers team, using data from 600,000 freight routes and advanced modelling, found the EU’s distance-based rules don’t match real traffic patterns.
“EU law is based on distance, but traffic volumes differ in other ways between countries,” said Joel Löfving, lead author of the study. “According to our model, capacity in France needs to be seven times higher in 2050 than what the EU requires by 2030.”
That’s not the case everywhere. In countries like Bulgaria, Romania and Greece, traffic volumes are far lower – meaning hydrogen stations could sit idle, racking up costs for infrastructure that’s barely used.
The study also factored in terrain, using European Space Agency topographic data to simulate realistic energy demands.
Many existing models assume a flat, uniform demand per kilometre – but the Chalmers model found hills, gradients and speed drastically alter how much fuel trucks actually need.
“We considered the direction of technology development for trucks,” said Löfving. “Much of the current research shows that batteries will be able to cover the shorter distances, while alternatives such as hydrogen may be needed as a supplement for long distances.”
With AFIR due for review in 2026, the study has already fed into EU policy discussions.
The message is clear: unless regulations are adapted to reflect real-world data, Europe’s hydrogen dreams could turn into an expensive miscalculation.
