A new discussion paper from the Institute of Economic Affairs argues that ending UK oil and gas production would damage the economy, increase global emissions and threaten energy security.

The paper, Just Stop Oil?, authored by Kathryn Porter of Watt-Logic, states that no credible forecast shows UK oil and gas demand falling to zero by 2050, even under net zero pathways.

It notes that the Climate Change Committee projects demand of 168 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2050, around 40% of current production.

Ms Porter argues that accelerating the decline of North Sea output does not cut global emissions if domestic supply is replaced by imports.

According to the Climate Change Committee, imported oil and gas can carry a carbon footprint around 50% higher than UK production.

The paper is critical of the windfall tax, which has lifted the headline rate on North Sea production to 78%.

It claims the policy has disproportionately affected independent producers. Harbour Energy is cited as having cut more than 700 UK jobs while shifting investment overseas. Apache Corporation has said it will exit the North Sea by 2029, while Chevron is closing its Aberdeen office.

Research from Robert Gordon University suggests the offshore workforce could fall to as low as 57,000 by the early 2030s, from around 120,000 previously.

The report also warns of security risks. The National Energy System Operator has cautioned that by 2030 there may be insufficient gas to meet peak winter demand, with analysts flagging potential risks as early as winter 2026/27.

Lord Frost, Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs, said pushing up energy costs while assuming oil and gas can be eliminated risks being “destructive and counter-productive”.