Gas power has been keeping us going as Britain freezes.
An Arctic blast of snow, sleet and hail has pushed temperatures down to -12.5°C, the coldest this winter, driving a sharp surge in electricity demand and straining the GB power system.
With Storm Goretti forecast to bring heavy snowfall on Thursday, analysts expect elevated demand and volatile prices to persist into mid-January.
Jake Thompson, GB Market Expert at Montel Analytics, said national electricity demand jumped as temperatures plunged, with morning peak demand hitting 44GW and forecasts pointing to around 46GW at the evening peak.
He said Monday saw the highest GB demand since March 2018 at 47.3GW, underlining how tightly balanced the system has become during extreme cold spells.
Renewables met just 23% of demand on 5 January, leaving the system heavily reliant on gas-fired generation during peak hours.
The system operator intervened in interconnector markets to relieve pressure on domestic generation as GB was initially scheduled to export power through Nemo Link, BritNed and Viking Link.
Those exports were bought back from 5:00am through competitive auctions, with prices reaching as high as £1,040/MWh around lunchtime, more than ten times the weighted day-ahead price for the same hour.
The intervention had knock-on effects across neighbouring markets, particularly the Netherlands, where severe winter weather had already cut renewable output and increased fossil generation.
When GB reduced exports, Dutch imbalance prices surged above €4,000/MWh (£3,400/MWh) on Monday.
Mr Thompson said the cold snap could last until at least 11 January, keeping demand high and prices elevated.
Low wind output, potentially falling to just 2GW on 8 January, is expected to intensify reliance on gas and push wholesale prices higher.
Copyright CES © 2024