Could energy bill rises scupper Starmer?

Three quarters of the public say they are worried about the cost of energy this winter. One in three are very concerned. The fear cuts across income groups and demographics — dropping only among those earning more than £100,000.

More than 80% of Britons say they will need to take cost-saving measures to afford their bills this winter. Over half plan to use their heating less. A third will cut back on social activities.

And it’s not just short-term discomfort. Six in ten people now believe energy bills will never become more affordable.

Just 13% expect any improvement in the next year or two.

That bleak outlook is dragging down Labour’s support.

Among those most concerned about winter bills, Labour is retaining just 57% of its 2024 voters. Among those less concerned, support holds firmer at 68%.

The government’s failure to explain or deliver a credible plan is making it worse. Nearly half the public think the government either has no strategy or is actively making the situation worse.

In focus groups, not one person could recall hearing anything about what Labour plans to do to bring prices down.

Most now blame the government more than war or energy suppliers for high bills — 75% say Westminster is at least partly responsible.

Voters also show signs of turning against cross-subsidies. Focus groups strongly rejected proposals to raise bills slightly to expand the Warm Homes Discount scheme.

Many felt they were already struggling and shouldn’t be forced to pay for others.

The research warns that any future attempt to introduce a social tariff by quietly adding charges to bills rather than using tax could backfire — especially among voters who feel they’re “just about managing”.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said: “The Prime Minister is right to place a renewed focus on making Britons feel better off as part of his government reset. However, he is unlikely to get a second hearing from voters unless he can bring Britons’ energy bills down.

“High energy bills are having a profound effect on Britons’ wellbeing. They are driving Britain’s broken national mood. Britons think tackling high energy bills must be a top priority for the government — but currently they have little to no awareness of the government’s strategy to achieve this.”

Unless Starmer delivers fast relief, the warning is clear — winter bills may do what the Tories couldn’t: bring down Labour’s vote.