Every tree tells a story and scientists are placing their bets on tree rings to unlock the past and predict future climate patterns.
Diego Pons Ganddini, a research assistant professor at the University of Denver, is leading a study on how tree rings reveal rainfall variability across the Neotropics—an area spanning Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia.
With funding from the National Science Foundation, Ganddini and his team analyse oxygen isotopes in tree ring cellulose to measure historical precipitation.
“We can go back and assess the precipitation that is stored in the tree rings to understand the magnitude of the precipitation and also the source where the tree is gathering that type of water,” he explains.
The Neotropics are critical to global weather patterns due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of clouds near the equator that drives rainfall.
Scientists are uncertain how climate change will impact the ITCZ, with models suggesting it is narrowing due to greenhouse gases. A narrower band leads to intense storms but reduces rainfall in surrounding regions, potentially raising the stakes for drought-prone areas.
The research aims to refine climate models by filling gaps in historical data, helping policymakers anticipate extreme weather events.
“The climate system is chaotic by definition but the more we try to understand and assess the system, the better we can forecast, the better we can predict. That translates into saving lives.”
By betting on nature’s oldest archives, researchers are working to stack the odds in favour of a more sustainable and climate-resilient future.
