Windfarms could cover 11% of the North Sea by 2050 predicts study

Offshore wind could cover around 11% of the North Sea by 2050 if governments deliver on current political promises, according to new research.

A study led by Heriot-Watt University has mapped a plausible future for the basin, showing how far the sector may expand across waters shared by the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Norway and France.

The researchers say current ambitions would mean around 19,400 offshore wind turbines across the North Sea by 2050, including those already built.

That would take offshore wind from around 1% of the basin today to about 58,500 square kilometres within wind farm boundaries by mid-century.

The study stresses this is not a forecast of exactly where turbines will be built. Instead, it is a scenario based on existing projects, national development pipelines and extra hypothetical wind farms needed to match each country’s stated commitments.

By 2030, the UK is projected to remain the largest offshore wind nation in the North Sea, with around 4,200 turbines in operation.

Germany follows with around 2,700 turbines and the Netherlands with around 1,700.

By 2050, the UK is still expected to lead in scale, with around 6,300 turbines, followed by Germany with around 4,300 and the Netherlands with just more than 4,200.

But in terms of pressure on national waters, the Netherlands faces the most intensive use.

The study suggests offshore wind farms could occupy around 19% of Dutch North Sea waters by 2050, followed by Belgium at around 18%, Denmark at about 15% and Germany at around 14%.

The UK figure is lower at around 9%, with Norway at around 8% and France at around 7%.

Dr Simon Waldman, Assistant Professor of Energy Technologies at Heriot-Watt University’s School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, said: “Our scenario shows the scale that we would be looking at if every country were to build the amount of offshore wind capacity that they have promised.”

The researchers built the scenario using marine and energy datasets, including national targets, spatial plans, seabed depths, wind and wave records, existing infrastructure and projected turbine technologies.

Dr Waldman said: “What this shows is the scale of activity we will be dealing with if offshore wind grows as promised, and the practical considerations that come with that.”

The study also highlights future tensions between offshore wind, fishing, shipping, cables, pipelines and marine ecosystems.

Debbie Russell, EcoSTAR Project Lead, said large wind farms can create atmospheric wakes stretching “40 kilometres or more”, meaning one project can affect another across national borders.