Rising geopolitical tensions have increased market risk as we move closer to winter. However, stable supply fundamentals, strong renewable output, and seasonal conditions mitigated much of the impact on market prices.

Electricity Market Movements

Strong wind generation surged to cover over 50% of the UK’s power mix at times, driving Day-ahead prices to their lowest levels since July.

UK power demand has risen with shorter daylight hours, but the impact has been offset by robust renewable output.

French industrial action created temporary supply constraints, but nuclear generation has recovered, limiting sustained upward pressure.

Gas Market Movements

Market volatility remained low, with front Annual gas trading within just a 2 p/th range so far this month.

EU gas storage has reached 80%, with continued injections supported by high renewable output and stable flows despite Norwegian outages.

Asian LNG prices for later in the year have firmed, while increased Russian LNG exports to China could ease competition for cargoes in Europe.

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